Landsec: Predicting the future of retail rents

The Challenge

Almost 100 retailers going into administration each year

Cornerstone retailers demanding up to 30% rent reductions

Covid-19 accelerating existing retailer trends and disruptive challenges

New CEO needed new strategy following c.50% fall in share price

Pressure has never been greater on retail landlords. In the 12 months prior to the Covid-19 crisis, almost 100 retailers with 16,000 stores went into administration. Remaining businesses were achieving rent reductions of up to 30%, with shorter lease lengths and longer rent-free periods. Covid-19 only increased the pressure on the sector, and our client saw a 50% fall in its share price. The new CEO needed to announce a new strategy quickly built on solid insights.

The Results

Dynamic Strategy tool that predicts sustainable rents using data science

>90% mean absolute accuracy across 300 individual forecasts

The tool replaces and complements other ‘static’ insights

A new strategy has been announced and will be updated dynamically


mean absolute accuracy across 300 forecasts

Arca Blanca developed a tool that predicts sustainable rent levels for retail tenants across 300 different sub-sectors and geographies. The tool, which uses over 200 data sources in its predictions, allows users to quickly understand the effect of different economic scenarios on the industry. These predictions have been proven to have a mean absolute percentage error of <10%. The tool was used to set a bold new strategy which will evolve as the tool senses market changes.


I was delighted at how quickly Arca Blanca worked with our Strategy Team to deliver a powerful bespoke decision-support tool that is unlike anything else in the industry. This has given us proprietary, data-led insights that have become a core part of our transformative strategy to reimagine the future of retail.

Mark Allan, CEO, Landsec

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